Independent, plain-English coverage of prediction markets, gambling regulation, financial-services boundaries and the rules that matter in Great Britain.
A “prediction market”, “event contract” or “exchange” can describe very different products. The regulatory analysis turns on what the product actually does.
The Gambling Commission says commercial prediction-market products in Great Britain, depending on their model, appear likely to fall within the definition of a Betting Intermediary. The Commission says their core aspects can be akin to a betting exchange.
Gambling Commission guidance ↗The FCA's 2026 Perimeter Report addresses prediction markets as an emerging perimeter issue. Its report explains what the FCA does and does not regulate and highlights areas where legislative change may be needed.
FCA Perimeter Report ↗Northern Ireland has a separate gambling framework. A Great Britain analysis should not simply be copied across the Irish Sea.
NI government information ↗Designed for founders, compliance teams, lawyers, researchers and serious market participants.
The Commission's first dedicated public statement explains how it views prediction-market products in Great Britain and points to the existing Betting Intermediary framework.
Primary source ↗The FCA's 2026 Perimeter Report sets out current boundary issues and the need to understand what is inside and outside its remit.
Read FCA report ↗Settlement, counterparties, customer geography, fees, custody, market rules and platform liability should be mapped before deciding which regulatory route applies.
View checklist →This is an educational framework, not a legal opinion.
Outcome, settlement source, expiry, price mechanics, fees and dispute rules.
Who supplies liquidity? Who takes the other side? Does the platform assume liability?
Separate Great Britain, Northern Ireland and non-UK customers. Do not rely on a generic “global” policy.
Consider identity, age, AML, customer funds, complaints, fairness, responsible gambling and market integrity where applicable.
Use categories, not marketing labels, when comparing products.
Products that bring betting parties together can fall within the Gambling Commission's licensing framework in Great Britain.
Products touching the financial regulatory perimeter require careful FCA analysis. The FCA's current perimeter material is the starting point.
Educational coverage, regulatory analysis and market intelligence are different from operating a prediction market.
A screening tool only. It does not determine whether a product is lawful or authorised.
PredictionMarkets.uk is positioned as an educational and market-intelligence publication. It does not operate a prediction market, accept wagers, hold customer funds or provide legal or financial advice.
We prioritise primary sources, distinguish regulator statements from editorial interpretation, and show dates so readers can see when a position was last checked.